Plays for the Presidency
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Want to know the moves and counter-moves of the 2012 presidential candidates? Economists have game theory. Chemists have the periodic table. So why not politicos?
Welcome to the interactive strategy blog Plays for the Presidency™, created by entrepreneur and author Alan Kelly. First launched at The Politico in April 2007 as a collaborative project with political scholar and consultant Michael Cornfield, Plays for the Presidency is based on the critically acclaimed book from Penguin, The Elements of Influence, and landmark strategy and prediction system, The Playmaker's Standard™.
In this space, Kelly posts his nonpartisan takes, derived from The Standard Table of Influence Strategies, a code-cracking classification system of 25 irreducibly unique "plays" in politics, business and even pop culture. From the subtle Ping of a soft-sounding surrogate to the outrageous Peacock of a desperate dark horse, these are the moves that build a base, outwit a rival, and win elections.
Tune in to SiriusXM satellite radio, POTUS channel 124, at 8:35 a.m. on Fridays, to hear Alan Kelly de-construct the gamesmanship of the 2012 Presidential election with host Tim Farley on "The Morning Briefing."
Click here to e-mail the Playmakers.
Label: LB
Definition
REDUCE TO A SOUND BITE. A word or phrase, self-given by a player or attributed to another, usually an opponent.
Attack Dogs and Attack Ads
Like Summer Thunderstorms, Master Plans Are Forming
May 17, 2012
This week’s election drama marked the conclusion to an improvisational flurry over Same-Sex Marriage and the beginning of so many master plans, from the framing of a He-Doesn't-Get-It-Candidate, to a sinister Super Pac plot, to an Oval Office brownbag. Like our post in February, here are the plays that were run…and their counters.
DOG OFF THE LEASH. Just when you thought VP Joe Biden had been locked into the White House basement, there he was on the campaign trail, barking mad, but on-message, and all over Mitt Romney. Beseeching gritty voters in Youngstown, OH, Biden played the populist card. Talking about wealth and, by inference, Republicans and everyone’s favorite one-percenter, Romney, he simmered and slammed: “They don’t get us. They don’t get who we are. They just don’t get it.”
- What’s the principle play? A Label, i.e., Slap on a Soundbite. Def., The application of a memorable word or phrase, self-given or attributed to another.
- What’s the counter-play? If it's a Label you want removed, (1) run a self-flattering counter-Label to reduce the effects of the original Label, (2) take the high road by running a Deflect, but factor in the consequence of appearing disengaged or effete, (3) run a Bear Hug. Agree with your opponent's Label. It might fit your brand, i.e. you're brave, unflinching, undeterred. Or (4), run a Disco. Apologize and laugh at yourself. Sometimes that's the best way to salve the sting.
LOW BLOWS COMING. In what amounts to a tip-off to the left, The New York Times reported on a $10 million Super Pac plan that will hit hard and aim low at the Obama-Biden ticket and, in the words of its architects, “do exactly what John McCain would not let us do [in 2008].” Backed by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, the plan’s central strategy is to exhume the signature fury of President Obama’s former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, and reanimate Wright's God-Damn-America preaching as an Obama-endorsed “black liberation theology.”
- What’s the principle play: A Screen, i.e., Play with a Prop. Def., The borrowing of issues, ideas, events or symbols to project or protect a position or platform.
- What’s the counter-play: Ricketts’ playmakers are reportedly ahead of the game, anticipating that Team Axelrod will counter with the race card. According to Playmaker Standard Guidance, there are these possibilities to consider: (1) Run Screens of your own to build reference points for you...and speed bumps for your opponent. (2) Run a Challenge to exhort other players to disavow the rival's Screen. (3) Run a Mirror. Expose your rival for exploiting sacred ideas or revered people. (4) Run a Call Out. Find a flaw in your opponent's understanding of the Screen they just referenced. Take them to task for going too far. (5) If the Screen is also good for you, co-opt it. Run a Crowd.
SPEAKER OF THE SANDWICH. Meanwhile, back in Washington, the Reds and Blues are locking in to the scrum of another debt-ceiling face-off. To keep it nice but to get the ball first, Obama invited Congressional leadership over for sandwiches, a Preempt in his own signature style.
- What's the principle play? Per White House Press Sec. Jay Carney, Obama played Challenges (to exhort his colleagues to compromise) and Fiats (to tell them his presidential preferences).
- What's the counter-play? Speaker of the House John Boehner was said to retort, “As long as I’m around here, I’m not going to allow a debt ceiling increase without doing something serious about the debt.” It was his own Fiat to keep his host in check and the Speaker’s options open. A starting series that, predictably, went nowhere.
Posted by Alan Kelly
Photo credit: www.cantaur.blogspot
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Preempt: PE
Definition
TURN THE TABLES. Action or communication that reverses competitive position.
Same Sex, Different Plays
A Planned Red Herring or a Panicked Preempt?
May 10, 2012
Click here to listen to "Plays for the Presidency" on SiriusXM, POTUS Channel 124, Fridays at 8:35 a.m.
It bears repeating: There is no such thing as coincidence in politics. Imagine this:
At Obama-Biden 2012 campaign HQ master playmaker David Axelrod is worried. Obama’s base is in a malaise. The President's trademark 'transcendence' has been lost. The news cycle is all about upset electorates…and upset incumbents. Not good.
Greece and France socialist parties haved returned to power. Russions are protesting the return of Vladimir Putin to the Presidency. GOP Senate fixture Richard Lugar is projected to lose his +30-year Senate seat. It's going to be a bad week. All negative Screens, in the parlance of playmakers.
So in the media melee that marked this week's plays for the presidency, and the historic announcement by Barack of Obama of his evolved support of same-sex marriage, what happened? There are at least two possibilities:
- A planned Red Herring: To re-track narrative/media cycles/activate base/transcend bickering/shut down the upset, Axelrod played the same-sex marriage card. He tapped VP Joe Biden and Education Sec. Arne Duncan to launch trial balloons on SSM, and gauge reaction.
- A broken play, solved with a Preempt: When Biden ran an off-script Fiat -- that he’s now comfortable with SSM -- his boss's hand was forced on the electric issue, and Axelrod had a problem.
See our two maps below on how the play action mapped out -- from a Joe-being-Joe, to Axelrod-being-Axelrod.
Posted by Alan Kelly


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Peacock: PK
Definition
PARADE ABOUT. The unsolicited parading by a player of a novelty to generate attention in a marketplace.
Entertain Me...Or I Won't Vote for You
Obama’s Rule Over Cool Continues at Annual Press Dinner
May 1, 2012
Click here to listen to "Plays for the Presidency" on SiriusXM, POTUS Channel 124, Fridays at 8:35 a.m.
What do computers and politics have in common? At their core, they’re boring.
Assembly language, compiler code, applications generators – technologies that tortured my Silicon Valley career – are riveting only to nerds. Likewise, the arcana or politics -- clotures, filibusters and gerrymandering – are largely of interest only to wonks.
- My mom is from Kansas. My father’s from Kenya. And I was born of course in Hawaii (he winks).
Jimmy (Kimmel) got his start on 'The Man Show.' In Washington, this is what we call a Congressional hearing on contraception. - I have one (degree from Harvard). [Mitt Romney] has two. ...What a snob.
[Romney's] campaign criticized me for slow-jamming the news with Jimmy Fallon. Gov. Romney was so incensed he asked his staff if he could get some equal time on the Merv Griffin show. [Mitt] took a few hours off to watch the Hunger Games…a great change of pace for him. I’ve not seen it. There’s not enough class warfare in it for me. To my conspiracist friends who suspect a secret agenda…you’re absolutely right. ...I will win the war on Christmas. ....And we will replace [Don’t-Ask-Don’t-Tell] with It’s-Raining-Men.
It’s funny enough, but it’s all on-strategy, including this closing pearl: I have to get the Secret Service home in time for their new curfew.
Playing to the Hollywood liberati of Lindsay Lohan (sic) and Kim Kardashian (sic) and, oh yeah, A-list journalists and politicos, Mr. Obama cauterized political wounds and flipped them to his advantage. Here are the chosen stratagems:
On Jimmy Kimmel’s Man Show: A Ping to keep alive the embarrassing spectacle of an all-male panel testifying on birth control. On Hawaii: A dissing Call Out on birthers and a Ping to say, in effect, you’re jackasses, just like Kanye. On Harvard: A Screen on Santorum’s over-the-top snob gaffe to enliven silly images of POTUS pretenders. On the Slow Jam: A Preempt + Screen combo that morphed the possibly tawdry Barack & Jimmy act into an ossified Mitt & Merv number...and reinforced Obama's primacy in the student loan issue. On Hunger Games: Another Preempt + Screen that used the box office hit to breathe life into the class warfare narrative. - On Conspiracy: A Crazy Ivan + Recast run directly at conspiracy theorists who, instead of worrying about Muslim Presidents and gay soldiers, were portrayed as worried about Christmas killers too.
On Curfew: A final Preempt + Ping to suggest that Obama knows what’s going on in Secret Service hotel rooms and that, well maybe, he’s on top of that too.
Is this tragic or tragic comedy? You be the judge. Suffice it so say, it is today Jon Stewart’s brand of news that trumps Ben Bradlee’s. And it is self-exploited movie stars who make sexy the things that, like computers, are otherwise boring.
Photo credit: Radar Online.com
Posted by Alan Kelly
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Bear Hug: BG
Definition
AGREE, UNEXPECTEDLY. The conspicuous and public support or embrace of a player's position or message, usually that of an opponent.
Hope Springs Eternal for Mitt's VP Suitors
It's Mating Season in Washington
April 26, 2012
Click here to listen to "Plays for the Presidency" on SiriusXM, POTUS Channel 124, Fridays at 8:35 a.m.
Hope springs eternal. It's the time of love and match-making in Washington, where candidates court VPs, cherry trees lure honey bees, and 747s and space shuttles hook up.
Tis mating season in Washington.
And who more than Mitt Romney and a handful of fecund rising-star Republicans know this better? Jeb Bush is taking interviews rather than release prepared statements. So is Patrick Toomey. So many new self-declared FOMs (friends of Mitt) are suddenly talking their silly heads off.
So what are the plays that mark this ritual path to November? Here are a few:
The Unofficial Audition: To gauge reaction to his short-list picks, Mitt Romney is lofting Trial Balloons. No different than a Hollywood screen test, he's picking his marks for media-made photo ops -- all to see how he and the pick are portrayed and perceived. Shaking hands with an earnest Paul Ryan. Putting an arm around a confident Marco Rubio. You get the idea. He's letting pundits and voters give him a reading on what feels right.
The Official Refusal: Not willing to wait -- or not willing to be rolled by a another pick -- VP-hopefuls are clearing calendars for faux features on faux issues. A Kikki Haley speech, say, on working women. Susana Martinez's take on immigration. Their offical purpose is to push their official agenda. Their real purpose is to be asked THE QUESTION they are so officially not going to answer: "Would you serve as Mitt Romney's VP if asked?" Their responses are canned. . We know the lines. It hardly matters, so long as they don't admit to wanting the job. But their purpose is served -- they are asked THE QUESTION and thus put on so many short lists. A scripted, 'Naw not me,!" is in fact code for, "Why not me?"
From Sirius XM's The Morning Briefing host, Tim Farley, come two queries on plays of the week:
Q. Mitt Romney seemed to beat-out the President by agreeing with his proposals on keeping the cost of college loans from spiraling out of sight…and he did it BEFORE the President delivered remarks on Tuesday. What play did Romney run?
A. Romney ran a Preempt. As discussed two weeks ago this is a play of which we can expect to see more. It's Obama's signature stratagem, but both campaigns are poised to beat the other to the punch. Score one for Romney, who often seems a day late and a dollar short.
Q. The Obama campaign (reportedly at the suggestion of Bill Clinton) is no longer positioning (or labeling) Mitt Romney as a flip-flopper. They are now calling him a committed and (in his own words) “severely” conservative candidate. The idea being that a waffler is probably more appealing to independent moderates than a right-wing ideologue. What are the play(s) being run here?
A. You practically answered the question yourself, Tim. The play is still the Label. They're just shifting the words from indecisive (flip-flopper) to conservative (severely so). Smart advice from Bubba, a playmaker in his own right.
If you've got a question on the plays for the presidency, drop us a line at potus@plays2run.com.
Photo credit: Lonely Planet
Posted by Alan Kelly
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Jam: JM
Definition
GUM UP THE WORKS. The attempt to disable or disorganize another player's activities or communications.
Gridlock. And Why We Miss Sam and Ralph
It's the Jam That's Gumming Up the Works
April 19, 2012
Click here to listen to "Plays for the Presidency" on SiriusXM, POTUS Channel 124, Fridays at 8:35 a.m.
Thinking about political gridlock the other day with GOP advertising ace Mike Hudome, it occurred to my politico friend, “It’s like those cartoons with the sheepdog and the coyote. You know? That’s what it’s supposed to be like…just business.”
I was raised on Bugs Bunny, Wile E. Coyote and the rest, so I knew immediately the series he was recalling: Morning coffee with Sam and Ralph. Friends, colleagues and rivals. They punch the clock. The whistle blows. The work day begins and, bam, the game to guard and steal sheep is on. Attempts are made, and foiled. The whistle blows. Traps and bombs are switched off. Another day at the office…and so it goes. An oddly rational cycle of comity and blood sport, per Warner Bros.
This does not describe today's Washington, the capital of influence and strategy, where the game is to win by elimination, around the clock. We share no coffee or morning paper. Quitting time is never a time to quit our plots and plotting. Perhaps, because we lack the friendships and work ethic of Sam and Ralph, we have a process that can't progress.
Are there strategies we came blame for the gridlock? Or does the problem have more to do with the players and their penchant for running plays?
One answer comes from my GW pupil, David Haddock, who earlier this semester used The Standard Table to solve the gridlock riddle. It’s a Jam, one of five freezing stratagems that, by its definition, gums up the works. Jams are used to disable or disorganize another player’s activities or communications. Think occupiers. Think radio jamming. Think legal injunctions. Jams, the strategy student observed, are like simply saying ‘No.’ To wit:
- On a proposal by House Speaker John Boehner to extend the Bush tax cuts, what does House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi say? No.
- On President Obama’s strategy to send food to North Korea, what does challenger Mitt Romney say? No.
- On a budget to solve the federal deficit, what does Rep. Maxine Waters say to Rep. Paul Ryan? No.
There is no alternative offered. No compromise. Only objection and refusal. Words like ‘no’ don’t advance a process. They lock it up.
There are other freezing plays that might do the job. Mirrors force a player to consider inconvenient truths. Bear Hugs allow a follower to co-opt another player’s platform. Lanterns quell speculation and rumor. So do Discos. But the Jam takes the hard line -- a favorite among today's celebrated compromise-killers.
How do you slow or stop a Jam? Standard Guidance holds some clues:
- Lure your rival with a Challenge. Make it in their best interest to stop. Let's stopping refusing. Let's find something to agree on.
- Run a Peacock. Call attention to the Jammer’s Jam with a made-for-media stunt. I am going to cross my arms and hold my breath til I pass out...right here on the steps of the Capitol.
- Run a Red Herring. Feign that the Jam has done more damage than it actually has. By refusing to budge, Rep. Waters has disemblowed the political process and her constituents' needs. Go ask them...
- If they're an inferior competitor, Pause. It may be better to let little jammers have their day.
- Set a trap. Bait your rival into a false debate to catch them in an act of sabotage. Can you say anything but 'no'? If I claim on the house floor that your mother is a saint, will your response be 'no'?
In a two-party system, we are ultimately all sheepdogs and coyotes. But the play action of today's politics has expanded from 9-to-5 to 24 x 7 and narrowed to one influence strategy, among 23 other options. And it's gumming up the works.
Graphic credit: Warner Bros.
Posted by Alan Kelly
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Screen: SN
Definition
INVOKE PEOPLE, IDEAS OR BRANDS. The attempt by a player to borrow issues, ideas, events or other symbolic references.
Like Jets and Sharks..
Seven Months of Knife Fights, Here We Come!
April 12, 2012
Click here to listen to "Plays for the Presidency" on SiriusXM, POTUS Channel 124, Fridays at 8:35 a.m.
So now we know. Newt will run a trio of plays to keep his name in lights. Think Michaele Salahi. And Rick Santorum has run the ultimate non-play play. He will Pass to preserve his credibility and resources.
Now it’s seven months to election day with hundreds of plays for two nominees to run. Hundreds of wounds to inflict in a not-so-subtle political knife fight. Here’s what Barack Obama and Mitt Romney will use as to make their cuts (and some they won't):
ROMNEY
- Screen, Screen, Screen – On the sputtering recovery, lost jobs, heartache in the heartland, and his adored and adoring wife. Never mind Mitt’s membership the 1% club.
- Call Outs – Hope and Change? What hope? What change? Wait for it. It’s just around the corner.
OBAMA
- Mirror, Mirror, Mirror – Constant, embarrassing bites of Romney’s healthcare hypocrisy, so many campaign trail gaffes (i.e., companies are people, severely conservative, my wife has two Cadillacs, let Detroit fail, etc.).
Ping, Ping, Ping – Subtle reminders of what Obama inherited. It was his fault. ‘W’ did this to us. 17-minute videos and so much made-for-facebook content will beat this drum to death.
Here are some plays they won’t run:
- Surrogates. It’s not that Mitt Romney doesn’t know to use them, or how. It is that the surrogates he does have are all too much like him (Mormon, rich, obscure and thus not relatable), or that the ones he’d like to use are too far outside his orbit. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, as examples, are not peas in Romney’s pod.
- Pings on Obama’s faith (i.e., the Muslim thing).
OBAMA
- Plays on Romney’s wealth (Obama is wealthy enough himself).
- Pings on Romney’s faith (i.e., the Mormon thing).
And here are some plays they’ll use and abuse:
- Preempt. The Obama-Biden machine is designed to punch first. Its new video-bash on Mitt all but reminds us that the smooth Mr. Obama is, in fact, a Chicago-style hitman. Team Romney isn’t so experienced at stealing an opponent’s thunder (the essence of the Preempt), but its campaign policy surely supports the play. Take note of his fast though awkward calls on jobs reports or Mr. Obama's open-mic blunder last month. Mitt Romney is not, in fact, your average nice-guy-from-Utah. He has the killer instinct, too, we’ll learn.
- Label. Watch for so many churlish sound bites, particularly from surrogates, that slap labels on their rivals. Bain of Your Existence and Vulture Capitalist will come from the left. Economic lightweight, once reassigned to Rick Santorum, will be glued to Obama by the right. Labels are getting old; they’re seen for what they are by a savvy electorate. But this cycle will feature them nonetheless.
If 2012 is shaping up to be a political knife fight, these are stratagems that will draw the blood and repaint the pictures that make American politics so viscerally ugly. Mr. Cool and Mr. Nice will be played by their understudies, Mr. Badass and Mr. Business.
Photo credit: SFWeekly
Posted by Alan Kelly
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Disco: DX
Definition
CONCEDE AND PROCEED. The concession or sacrifice by a player of an element of its platform.
Debating Like a Champion
Speaker Gingrich Discos, Filters and Jams to Play Another Day
April 8, 2012
Some people will do or say just about anything to stay in the spotlight (see right).
This week, as Mitt Romney cemented his place as the presumptive U.S. Presidential Republican nominee, Newt Gingrich quickly ran some plays himself, beginning with the Disco, the move of parliamentary debaters, where fault or folly of one assertion is sacrificed to save the larger argument.
But why? Where was Newt hoping to go with his strategic concession, his fast-stepping Disco? He was hoping to preserve the core of his existence. Never mind that his veritable campaigning arms and legs are now amputated. His Disco was designed to salvage what is obviously sacred to Newt – relevance and celebrity. So he caved, but only to show that he’s no threat, no delegate stealer.
Having addressed one pregnant issue – his viability – he then moved to address the other – his purpose.
Photo credit: www.abovetopsecret.com
Posted by Alan Kelly
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